“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” Counterpoint Research Senior Analyst Yang Wang said in the note.

The research firm forecasts that Apple will hold the top spot in the global smartphone market through 2029. Apple’s iPhone 17 series, which consists of three models including the top-end iPhone 17 Pro Max, is getting strong interest across key regions, Counterpoint said. iPhone shipments are projected to rise 10 percent in 2025 compared with last year, far outpacing the 3.3 percent growth expected for the overall smartphone market.

According to Counterpoint, iPhone 17 sales in the US during the first four weeks of its release were up 12 per cent compared with the iPhone 16 series (which does not include the lower-cost iPhone 16e model). During the same period, iPhone 17 sales in China were up 18 per cent versus the previous model series, with Counterpoint noting that the iPhone Air was not included in the initial release in China.

Samsung, meanwhile, could face challenges in the low-to mid-range segment from Chinese brands, which could derail the South Korean company’s chances of remaining at the top of the global smartphone market.

Counterpoint also noted that Apple has “benefited from lower-than-expected” impacts from US tariffs and a softening of geopolitical tensions.

“These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters,” Counterpoint Research said.

The iPhone remains Apple’s biggest cash cow. (Image credit: Anuj Bhatia/Indian Express)

Another major catalyst beyond the iPhone 17 series, one that is both notable and impactful, is the market for used iPhones, which remains a huge segment for any brand. A massive 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025.

Counterpoint also notes that the impact of “Apple Intelligence” and the way it has been rolled out has not affected the iPhone series. This suggests that consumers still don’t prioritise AI features as much as standard improvements such as better battery life, camera performance, and design.

With Apple expected to launch the budget iPhone 17e and its first foldable iPhone in 2026, Counterpoint says Apple’s fundamentals and its future iPhone lineup look strong, which will only benefit the company and its market share. However, rising RAM and smartphone component prices could put some pressure on the smartphone market in 2026.

Surprisingly, Counterpoint’s forecast lack outlook for Apple in India, even though the country is increasingly becoming one of its strong markets. In Q3, Apple’s market share in the Indian smartphone segment reached 10.4 per cent, a year-on-year growth of 25.6 per cent, according to data from the International Data Corporation (IDC). And while that’s impressive growth – backed by both online and offline presence and the fact that Indians still view the iPhone as an “aspirational” product, Apple’s domestic sales of $9 billion in 2024–25 (FY25) accounted for just over 2 per cent of Apple’s global revenues of $416.1 billion, according to filings in the US and India.