Uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy continues to cloud global markets after the US Supreme Court on Wednesday declined to issue an immediate ruling on the legal challenge to the proposed global tariffs. The apex court also did not indicate when it would take up the matter or provide a timeline for its decision, prolonging uncertainty for investors across asset classes.

The case, which challenges the legality of Trump’s sweeping tariff measures, is being closely tracked by global financial markets given its far-reaching implications for global trade flows, inflation dynamics, corporate earnings, and overall risk sentiment.

Any clarity from the US Supreme Court — either in favour of or against the tariffs — is expected to trigger sharp reactions across equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities worldwide.

Pressure on Indian markets amid tariff concerns

Indian equity markets have already come under pressure amid concerns over elevated tariffs imposed by the US on Indian exports, particularly in sectors such as engineering goods, textiles, auto components, and select chemicals. The uncertainty has weighed on export-oriented stocks and contributed to a broader risk-off tone in domestic markets.

Market participants believe that the eventual court ruling could have a decisive impact on Indian stock market and commodities. A verdict striking down the tariffs could ease trade-related headwinds, improve earnings visibility for exporters, and trigger a sharp relief rally in equities. Conversely, a prolonged legal battle or an adverse ruling could extend volatility and keep risk appetite subdued.

Impact on the Indian stock market

“There is a high probability of the verdict going against Trump. However, the details will be crucial—whether the ruling partially strikes down the tariffs or declares them entirely illegal,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited.

He explained that market reaction would depend on the breadth and clarity of the judgment. “If the Supreme Court declares the Trump tariffs illegal in their entirety, Indian markets are likely to see a strong rally, as India has been among the worst affected by the steep 50% tariffs. Such a verdict would be a clear positive for risk assets globally,” Vijayakumar said.

According to him, sectors that have borne the brunt of recent corrections—such as financials, consumer discretionary, capital goods, and industrials — can be accumulated now for long-term investment.

Other market experts also point out that a favourable ruling could support foreign portfolio inflows into Indian equities, as reduced trade tensions would improve global growth outlook and risk appetite.

Implications for gold and silver prices

On the commodity front, bullion prices have remained supported by ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy, geopolitical risks, and expectations of sticky inflation.

According to Ajay Kedia, Director at Kedia Advisory, the prevailing uncertainty continues to embed a risk premium in gold and silver prices. “As long as tariff-related concerns persist, markets will price in the risk of higher inflation and slower global growth, both of which are supportive of precious metals,” Kedia said.

He added that tariffs, if sustained, could push up input costs and consumer prices in the US, reinforcing gold’s role as an inflation hedge. “However, a Supreme Court ruling against the tariffs would likely improve risk sentiment, strengthen equities, and reduce demand for safe-haven assets. In that scenario, gold and silver could see profit booking and short-term downside,” Kedia noted.

Analysts also highlight that movements in the US dollar and bond yields following the court’s decision will be key determinants of the direction of precious metals.

What markets will watch next

Until clarity emerges, investors are expected to remain cautious, tracking legal developments in the US alongside key macro data and central bank cues. Market participants say volatility is likely to persist in the near term, with sharp moves possible across asset classes once the Supreme Court provides guidance on the fate of the tariffs.

For Indian markets, the ruling could prove to be a decisive trigger — either unlocking a relief rally or extending the phase of consolidation amid global uncertainty.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.