“In my experience, when everything is doing well, that’s exactly when you should start asking questions and worrying,” said Rogers, citing resilience in global markets amid uncertainty. “We may see issues arising from the US-China situation,” he said, while also warning that Mr Trump’s unpredictable behaviour makes it hard for investors to plan ahead.

Rogers, who co-founded Quantum Fund alongside Hungarian-American investor and philanthropist George Soros, said he still holds shares in China and Uzbekistan but has sold most others. In an interview, he told Mint that he isn’t buying Indian stocks at the moment because valuations are too high, but if the market corrects, he hopes he is “smart enough to invest”.

“I am not buying silver. I am not buying gold now because they both have gone straight up. If something happens and they go down for a while, I hope I am smart enough to buy more.”

Even with recent corrections, he hasn’t sold any gold or silver. “My gold and silver are for my children someday.”

Edited Excerpts:

These are exciting times: geopolitical tensions are high, and most global markets are performing well, except India. Is the world headed for a hard landing, or is this just a reset?

In my experience, when everything is doing well, that’s exactly when you should start asking questions and worrying. I look around the world, and I don’t own shares in many countries anymore because everything looks great. But when everything is great, normally you should worry.

Do you mean there is caution ahead?

I am cautious. I am worried.

I still own shares in China. I still own shares in Uzbekistan, but I have sold most countries.

Which countries are you excited about? And where does India stand?

Well, Uzbekistan is perhaps the best, or China. The Chinese market has started going up recently, so I’d say Uzbekistan is probably the most exciting right now, though it’s very small.

What about other emerging markets? Which would be the one Asian country that you would bet on for the next decade?

Uzbekistan.

Last year, you mentioned missing investing in India and not feeling ready to return because of high valuations. Is that still the case?

For the first time in my life, I feel that India truly understands that success and prosperity are good. Policies and governance are now aligned to support growth and wealth creation. This shift is positive for India and the world.

As for investing, I am not buying right now because valuations are very high, but if the market corrects, I hope I am smart enough to invest.

What would make you invest heavily in India? What kind of correction are you referring to? A 20–30% decline?

I have no idea. I’ll let the market guide me.

If I see despair, if everyone seems unhappy in India, that would make me consider buying. But right now, nobody seems unhappy.

Foreign investors are selling in India, but domestic investors seem quite optimistic. Does this foreign selling make you a bit cautious as well?

I know that foreign investors in any country are usually wrong.

So, if they’re selling India, maybe I should think about buying again. The only concern is that Indian domestic investors seem overly optimistic, and that’s not necessarily a good sign.

Why do you say that? Many investors actually see domestic confidence as a green signal to invest in equities. You seem to have a contrarian view.

I have learned that the best time to invest is when people are unhappy and in despair, not when they’re content.

As the saying goes, buy low, and sell high. Right now, people in India are neither sad nor unhappy.

You once mentioned that you might even move to India if things changed a bit. Do you still think about that? Is it part of your plans at all?

I see a major shift for the first time in my lifetime in Delhi and among those running India. India has incredibly smart, hardworking people, and now it seems the country truly wants its people to succeed and become wealthy. Historically, India wasn’t like this—Delhi never really embraced rich or successful people, even though leaders like Nehru and Gandhi claimed otherwise. But now, something has changed.

What change are you seeing in the country? When you talk about a shift, are you referring to structural reforms like GST, Make in India, or other government initiatives?

I’ve learned to rarely trust any government, as politicians usually prioritize themselves. Indian leaders often said they wanted people to succeed, but didn’t.

You’ve often spoken about debt bubbles. Which countries or sectors worry you the most in that context?

Well, I guess America is the first, with the biggest debt bubble. The debt in the US is gigantic—I mean, we can’t even count it. The debt is so high that it’s the worst in the world. Many countries are now taking on lots of debt and saying not to worry, but the US stands out as the worst.

Apart from the US, Japan is another country that worries me. I sold my Japanese shares because the market has been going straight up. I have to worry about Japan since it’s gone up so much and so fast. At the same time, Japan has a declining population and rising debt over the past 15–20 years, which adds to the concern.

How do you view the power struggle between the US and China, and how do you think it will impact the investing landscape and global trade in the coming years?

Power struggles between the world’s leading countries have rarely been good for anyone except a few. So no, it’s not positive that China and the US are at odds. For a while, when they worked together, everyone benefited and prospered, but that no longer seems to be the case.

History shows that such tensions typically lead to financial, economic, and political problems. I anticipate that in the coming months, we may see issues arising from the US-China situation. It is not good, but one has to face the facts.

But how do you view Chinese investments in this context? Do you think Chinese equities are well-positioned in such a volatile and geopolitically risky environment?

The Chinese stock market has been going straight up in the last two or three weeks. Any market that goes straight up for a while is at risk. China’s market was down for a very long time. Now suddenly it’s straight up. So I have to worry about China. I have to worry about the whole world. Everybody’s having a very good time. And when everybody’s having a good time, it usually means you should worry.

Any geopolitical risks that the investors are probably underestimating at this point in time?

All markets are going up. The worst, I guess, is Mr Trump in the US. He says everything is great, acts like he knows what he is doing, but probably doesn’t. With someone like Margaret Thatcher, we knew her thought process and could anticipate her actions. With Mr Trump, he watches TV and decides what to do—unpredictable. That makes it hard for investors and isn’t good for the world. His unpredictability is something to be careful about.

Gold and silver prices have skyrocketed in the past year. Last time we spoke, you said gold was a great investment and that you learned to invest in gold from Indians. Do you still hold that view? Should investors still look at gold?

Go down to the market and ask the Indian women. Indian women know. Indian women are very, very smart. That’s where I learned about silver and gold, in the Indian market. I imagine Indian women are still buying gold and silver. I am not selling my gold and silver.

I bought more silver a couple of weeks ago. I am not buying silver. I am not buying gold now because they both have gone straight up. If something happens and they go down for a while, I hope I am smart enough to buy more. I am not going to sell. My gold and silver are for my children someday.

Even with the recent correction, I have not sold any gold or silver and will not.

Basically, you’re using it as a hedging tool. I think Indian investors may have forgotten that. They’ve started treating gold and silver as growth assets rather than as a hedge. What are your thoughts on that?

I own gold and silver because everybody should, in my view. There will be huge problems in the world again; there always have been. When they come, gold and silver will save you. For thousands of years, when things go wrong, people have wanted gold and silver.

Do you remember Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver. Even then, silver was extremely valuable and still is. It always has been and probably always will be, as will gold.

Do you see a super cycle ahead for gold and silver?

Yes. My view of gold and silver is different from things like cotton or oil. We try to figure out when oil or cotton is cheap, but with gold and silver, I hope I never sell mine. I hope it’s for my children. Gold and silver are things you should have when things go wrong–some gold under the bed, some silver in the closet. That’s my view. I always want to have gold and silver, and if things go wrong, I’ll take them out. But that’s different from oil, cotton, or something else.

How do you see the role of oil evolving, especially as the world shifts toward renewables?

The role of oil in a renewable world is crucial because we are shifting. Oil is the most important commodity in the world. We all need it, whether we like it or not. It will always remain extremely important. If the price falls, I hope I’m smart enough to buy more. Everyone should own some oil because whatever happens in the world affects its price. War, depression—people will still need oil. So don’t sell your oil. And don’t sell your gold and silver.

Are there any markets that you’re closely watching in terms of investing?

Well, no.

Uzbekistan is the only one left. I still own China, but China has been going straight up recently. I’d like to find a depressed market where everyone says, “terrible, terrible, terrible.”

Right now, I can’t find a market like that.

What advice would you give your younger self about money, wealth, and happiness?

Well, I mean, money itself cannot buy happiness. The only thing that can is doing what you love. I hope everyone first learns to figure out what they love. Whatever you love most, that’s what you should do—especially if others say it’s crazy. It’s a very, very important lesson, and many people never learn it. Even if they discover what they love, they’re often afraid, thinking everyone will laugh at them. All I can tell you is what I’m trying to teach my children: please, figure out what you love more than anything else, and that’s what you should do.

How long did it take for you to figure out what you loved?

A long time. A long time.

At first, I thought it was easy. I listened to other people, read newspapers, and so on. It took me a long time to figure out: don’t do any of that. Just stick with what you know. There are some things I’ve learned a lot about, and that’s what I focus on. If I don’t know something about a subject, I stay away. I’ve learned to do that, and I tell myself, “You don’t know anything about it—don’t get involved.” So far, I’ve listened to myself, and that’s the lesson I’ve learned.