Trade set-up for December 11: The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a strong note on Thursday, December 11 tracking positive global market cues, and after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 bps on Wednesday, the third straight reduction, but signaled a possible pause ahead.

The move lowered the key rate to about 3.6%, its lowest in nearly three years. Chair Jerome Powell said that after six cuts in two years, the Fed will now watch how hiring and inflation progress. In their latest projections, officials indicated they expect just one more rate cut next year.

The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a robust start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,966 level, up 131 points or 0.5% from the Nifty futures’ previous close.

Meanwhile, in the previous session, the Indian stock market extended its losing streak for a third straight session on Wednesday, December 10, weighed down by mixed global cues ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision later tonight.

The Sensex climbed as much as 354 points to an intraday high of 85,020.34, but the rebound fizzled out, with the index slipping 629 points from the day’s peak to close in the red. The 30-share benchmark ended 275 points lower at 84,391.27, while the Nifty 50 declined 82 points to settle at 25,758.

The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices dropped 1.08% and 0.58%, respectively. Investor wealth shrank by more than ₹1 lakh crore in a single session, as the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies fell to ₹463.8 lakh crore from ₹465 lakh crore in the previous trading day.

Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:

Sensex Prediction

Mayank Jain, Market Analyst at Share.Market, said the Sensex continues to trade within a tight range, mirroring its recent pattern of oscillating between 84,000 and 85,000. He noted that the index now has key support in the 84,000–84,100 zone, while 85,000–85,100 remains a strong resistance area where selling pressure typically reappears.

“The Sensex is showing a similar pattern, moving between 84,000 and 85,000 over the past few sessions. Support now lies in the 84,000–84,100 band, while 85,000–85,100 remains the main resistance zone where selling pressure often emerges. Unless the Sensex moves decisively above or below these levels, the market is likely to remain sideways. Early trends will depend on global cues, especially US and European markets, while domestic stock-specific news may add short term volatility,” Jain said.

Nifty OI Data

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, said the derivatives setup is signalling a distinctly cautious undertone. He noted that call writers have aggressively added fresh positions at at-the-money and nearby strikes, indicating strong overhead supply. In contrast, put writers have partially unwound positions and migrated to lower strikes, reflecting expectations of continued consolidation.

A substantial build-up of nearly 1.34 crore call contracts at the 26,000 strike has cemented it as a key resistance zone, while put open interest of 76.29 lakh contracts at the 25,500 strike underscores a firm support base. Dhameja added that the Put-Call Ratio has slipped to 0.54 from 0.67, pointing to heightened caution and more defensive positioning. However, with the PCR approaching oversold territory, he said the possibility of mild profit-taking or short-covering cannot be ruled out.

Nifty 50 Prediction

The Nifty 50 is expected to trade within a tight range in Thursday’s session, with analysts pointing to firm support zones and stiff resistance levels that have capped momentum in recent days. Weak global cues and persistent selling pressure have kept the index in consolidation mode, and traders anticipate another day of range-bound movement unless a decisive breakout occurs.

Mayank Jain, Market Analyst at Share.Market, said the index is likely to remain confined within key levels, noting that buyers may emerge on dips. “The Nifty 50 is expected to trade in a narrow range tomorrow. Buyers are likely to step in around 25,650–25,700, an area supported by the 50-day moving average. If Nifty falls below this zone, it may slip toward 25,500, where fresh buying could return. On the higher side, the index continues to face strong resistance at 25,900–26,000, as it has repeatedly failed to move above this level. Overall, traders may expect Nifty to stay within 25,650–26,000,” he said.

Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research at Religare Broking, added that crucial levels have shifted slightly lower, with further consolidation possible if support breaks. “We now view 25,650 as the next critical support. A decisive break below this level could further widen the consolidation range, with the next major support at 25,400. On the upside, the 20-DEMA, placed around 25,950, is now acting as the immediate hurdle, and only a sustained move above this zone may help improve the near-term bias,” he said.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the market atmosphere remains bearish, with Nifty repeatedly failing to sustain recovery attempts. He noted that the index once again found support near the 50 EMA, while the RSI slipped out of its recent consolidation. De also pointed out that Nifty has broken below the 50% retracement of its prior rise from 25,318 to 26,325, suggesting underlying weakness. In his view, support levels lie at 25,700, followed by 25,610 and 25,530, while resistance is seen at 25,870 and 25,960–26,000.

Bank Nifty Prediction

Bank Nifty continued to display a weak undertone on Wednesday as the index moved into a phase of sideways consolidation. The index slipped below its 20-day EMA for the first time in several sessions, while the RSI extended its pattern of forming lower tops in a bearish crossover, signalling sustained negative momentum.

According to Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, “Bank Nifty is witnessing a sideways consolidation with a clear bearish undertone. In Wednesday’s session, the index slipped below its 20-day EMA for the first time in several sessions, while the RSI continued to form lower tops in a bearish crossover, reinforcing weak sentiment. Immediate support lies at the 58,750–58,775 zone, aligned with the hourly 200 EMA, while resistance is seen near 59,300 at the 10-day EMA. A breakdown below support may intensify selling toward the 50-day EMA around 58,100. Only a reclaim of the 10-day EMA with a bullish RSI crossover would revive optimism.”

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