Expert view on Indian stock market: Rahul Ghose, the founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged.in, believes the Nifty 50 may surpass the 28,000 mark by next Diwali, supported by global liquidity, domestic inflows, and a resilient corporate balance sheet. In an interview with Mint, Ghose shared his outlook on the Indian stock market, key risks for the market, and sectors that can generate alpha in Samvat 2082. Here are edited excerpts of the interview:

Samvat 2081 was a disappointment for the Indian market. What can cause a rebound in Samvat 2082?

Earnings recovery, improving liquidity and political stability are the key factors markets would look for in a potential rebound.

FIIs were largely net sellers in calendar year 2025; for them to return, earnings recovery has to happen.

If corporate profitability grows at 12-13 per cent over the next 12 months, led by a revival in consumption, continued capex, and easing inflation, markets would take it positively.

Where do you see the market by next Diwali? Can the Nifty 50 be above 28k?

There is a possibility of seeing Nifty at those levels. Technically, 2025 was largely a year of consolidation, with markets moving in a broader range. If we go by historical patterns, a rally followed by such consolidation is considered healthy.

If there are no negative surprises, the Nifty 50 can very well break out post this consolidation and inch towards the 28,000 levels.

Supportive global liquidity, domestic inflows exceeding 25,000 crore a month via SIP, and a resilient corporate balance sheet would make this realistic.

What are the key risks that investors should not overlook? Are these risks more external or internal?

The primary risks may emerge from the external environment. Global growth slowdown, trade tensions, and currency volatility could create temporary outflows.

Domestically, risks are restricted to valuation excesses in select mid-cap stocks. Overall, India remains fundamentally stronger than most emerging markets.

Considering the current growth and inflation trajectory, do you think the RBI can cut rates further from here?

Yes, there is room for one more rate cut by December 2025. With inflation below 3 per cent, the RBI minutes have hinted at an accommodative policy to support growth. Repo rates could move down from 5.50 per cent to 5.25 per cent by the end of the year.

The US Fed is expected to cut rates in October and December. How can that impact emerging markets like India?

Fed cuts weaken the dollar and improve flows in emerging markets. A softer dollar reduces external debt cost and supports commodity and equity inflows.

For India, it could mean renewed foreign interest, a firmer rupee and possibly increased participation from foreign funds.

What sectors can generate alpha in Samvat 2082?

Financials, autos and power have the potential to generate alpha. Banks can benefit from strong credit expansion and reduced NPAs, while the consumption boost will help autos. Power will emerge as a structural theme.

Read all market-related news here

Read more stories by Nishant Kumar

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of the expert, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.