As the Union Budget 2026 approaches, India’s real estate sector finds itself at a crucial crossroads. While headline numbers point to record luxury home sales and rising property values, industry leaders warn that the underlying reality is far more complex—and troubling. The widening gap between premium housing and mass affordability has emerged as the sector’s most pressing challenge, prompting urgent calls for policy intervention in the upcoming budget.

Anuj Puri, Chairman of ANAROCK Group, describes the current situation as a “perplexing point in India’s housing history.” According to ANAROCK Research, the total value of homes sold in 2025 rose 6% year-on-year to nearly ₹6 lakh crore. Institutional investments also surged 51% in 2024 to $8.9 billion. However, these topline figures mask a sharp contraction in volumes, with the number of homes sold falling 14% in 2025.

“The market now clearly favours the rich,” Puri notes, pointing to a 170% spike in luxury home sales, even as affordable housing languishes. Affordable homes accounted for just 18% of total supply in 2025, down sharply from 38% in 2019, highlighting what he calls a “structural crisis” rather than a cyclical slowdown.

Affordability Under Severe Strain

Industry data shows that affordability pressures have intensified across urban India. In 2018, over half of new homes in the top seven cities were priced below ₹50 lakh; by 2025, that share has dropped to just 17%. Rising prices and interest rates have pushed EMI-to-income ratios to unsustainable levels — around 60% for many households — effectively pricing millions out of homeownership.

ANAROCK’s consumer survey reveals that in Bengaluru alone, 42% of prospective buyers seeking homes under ₹1 crore can no longer afford to buy, despite demand for budget housing growing 13% year-on-year (YoY). “Brutal economics, not choice, keep buyers out of the market,” Puri says.

Why Affordable Housing Supply Has Dried Up

Developers argue that the economics of affordable housing no longer add up. Margins in the segment hover around 10–12%, compared with 25–30% for premium projects. Rising land prices, elevated construction costs, and prolonged approval timelines have further eroded viability.

Compounding the problem is an outdated policy framework. The ₹45 lakh price cap for affordable housing — set in 2017 — no longer reflects urban realities. In most metros, even peripheral projects now exceed this threshold, disqualifying developers from key incentives. The expiration of the Section 80-IBA tax holiday in 2021 has only worsened the situation, leading to fewer launches and tighter supply.

Key Budget Expectations: Redefine, Revive, Rebuild

Industry leaders agree that Budget 2026 must decisively address these bottlenecks. A major demand is redefining affordable housing price caps to reflect current costs. Puri advocates raising the cap to ₹85 lakh for Mumbai MMR and ₹75 lakh for other major metros, while retaining size norms to prevent misuse. Such a move, he estimates, could lift affordable housing’s share of new launches from 18% to over 40%.

The revival of the Section 80-IBA tax holiday is another critical ask. A time-bound reintroduction could quickly incentivize developers to return to the affordable segment, bridging the margin gap and expanding supply.

On the demand side, experts want a stronger push to the Credit-Linked Subsidy Scheme (CLSS). While CLSS was partially revived under PMAY-U 2.0, developers and consultants believe Budget 2026 should expand loan limits, enhance subsidy rates, and streamline disbursements to support first-time buyers more effectively.

Pradeep Aggarwal, Founder and Chairman of Signature Global, says sustained policy support is essential to maintain growth momentum. He also reiterates the sector’s long-standing demand for industry status, which could ease access to institutional finance and reduce borrowing costs.

“Real estate has the potential to contribute up to 15% of India’s GDP by 2047,” Aggarwal notes, aligning the sector with the government’s ‘Viksit Bharat’ vision.

Ramani Sastri, Chairman and MD of Sterling Developers believes that affordability remains the biggest challenge for a large section of the population.

“Hence there should be expansion in the definition of affordable housing in urban areas as this would expand the benefits for homebuyers, thereby boosting the end-user demand. There is a strong case for interest subsidy for first-time homebuyers who currently fall outside the affordable housing benefits as this will boost sales to a great extent,” he said.

Infrastructure, REITs and Ease of Doing Business

Beyond housing, Budget 2026 is expected to emphasize infrastructure-led development. Faster execution of metro rail, ring roads, suburban rail and logistics corridors could unlock new housing micro-markets and improve affordability through better connectivity.

Badal Yagnik, CEO of Colliers India, believes the budget will aim to balance fiscal discipline with growth. He highlights the importance of standardizing affordable housing norms for Tier I cities, incentivizing sustainability, and promoting REITs and SM-REITs to deepen retail investor participation.

From a developer’s perspective, Ramani Sastri stresses the need for GST rationalisation on under-construction homes, quicker approvals, and higher tax deductions on home loan interest — from ₹2 lakh to ₹5 lakh annually — to boost end-user demand.

Emphasizing on the need for digitisation and streamlining the approval process for new construction projects, Harsh Jagwani, Managing Director, Notandas Realty said that it would be prudent for the government to initiate a Single Window Clearance System.

“The government will also need to bring reforms in the digitization process of land as well as property acquisition. This will not only help in accelerating the pace of development of new projects but also ease the process of buying new homes for homebuyers in general. Cleaner land-title system, stricter escrow enforcement under RERA will also help reduce transaction risk and financing delays,” said Jagwani.

Commercial Real Estate and Coworking

Expectations are not limited to residential real estate. Coworking operators are seeking GST rationalisation, removal of blocked input tax credit on fit-outs, and easier access to institutional finance. Manas Mehrotra, Founder of 315Work Avenue, says such measures would improve cash flows, support startups, and accelerate the growth of flexible workspaces, especially in non-metro cities.

Another key expectation from Jagwani is to encourage Global Capability Centers (GCCs) investment in India.

“As the country plans to position itself as a global hub of business and manufacturing, incentive-led policies and encouragement for GCCs will help in driving the momentum for the commercial real estate market. With more global companies entering the Indian market, it will drive demand for premium office spaces which in turn will boost the growth of the Indian real estate sector for the years to come,” he said.

A Defining Moment

With housing affordability under strain and urban inequality widening, industry leaders see Union Budget 2026 as a defining moment. Whether through tax incentives, infrastructure acceleration, or policy recalibration, the sector believes decisive action now could prevent a deeper bifurcation of India’s housing market — and put homeownership back within reach for millions.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.