The 32-year-old fast bowler underwent a follow-up scan last week to assess his recovery progress. Sources with knowledge of the situation told the SMH that while the stress “hot spot” in his back is healing, it has not improved enough to allow him to resume bowling. As a result, Cummins has already been ruled out of the Ashes opener in Perth, starting November 21, and could potentially miss all five matches.

Cricket Australia has declined to comment officially on the matter.

Cummins had previously sounded optimistic about his chances of returning in time for the Ashes, calling the series one of the biggest in cricket and stating he was prepared to take calculated risks to be fit. However, the latest medical update has significantly reduced his prospects of taking the field this summer.

“This far out it’s hard to know, but we’re trying to make sure we’re doing everything right to be right for Perth,” Cummins had said in Brisbane last month. “It’s a big Ashes series, doesn’t get much bigger, so you’re willing to be aggressive and take a few risks.”

Steve Smith likely to lead Australia, Scott Boland as third seamer

With Cummins unlikely to feature, Steve Smith is expected to lead Australia in his absence. Smith last captained the side during parts of the 2023–24 season and is the most experienced leadership option available.

The setback also means that Scott Boland is now likely to step in as the third seamer alongside Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc for the Perth Test. Boland has become a reliable backup in recent summers and will be counted on to fill the void left by Cummins’ absence.

Cummins’ injury comes at a crucial time for Australia, who have held the Ashes since 2018 and will face a resurgent England side led by Ben Stokes. England have not won a Test match on Australian soil since 2011 but will be buoyed by the news that they may not have to face Australia’s captain and pace spearhead.

Losing Cummins not only weakens Australia’s bowling attack but also removes a calm and tactical leader who has been instrumental in the team’s success across formats over the past few years. His injury also highlights the heavy workload he has shouldered, having led Australia in all three formats while maintaining his role as a frontline fast bowler.

A best-case scenario now appears to be a late return for Cummins in the final Test or two, provided his recovery accelerates in the coming weeks. However, with a tightly packed schedule and no room for warm-up matches, even that remains uncertain.

As the countdown to the Ashes begins, Australia will have to adjust their plans quickly and hope that their depth in pace and experience in leadership will be enough to withstand the absence of their captain.