Hong Kong, China, has already been eliminated from the tournament, having lost all three of its matches. The fight between the remaining three teams is now one of net run rate. Let us see what Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh need to make it to the Super Four.

The table so far

Sri Lanka sit at the top with four points from two matches and a healthy net run rate of +1.546. Bangladesh have completed their assignments for the league and also have four points under their belt, but the catch for them is their poor net run rate of -0.270. Afghanistan have two points and have one more match to go, but have the advantage of a sparkling net run rate of +2.150.

Scenario 1: Sri Lanka win the last match

If Sri Lanka beat Afghanistan, the equation is straightforward. They will finish with six points and top the group. Bangladesh, despite having a negative net run rate, will be the second team to qualify from the group with four points. Curtains will be drawn over the campaign of Afghanistan, who will bow out of the competition with two points.

Scenario 2: Afghanistan win the last match

An Afghanistan win will create a three-way tie at four points each, and the net run rate will come into play. Rashid Khan and his men already have the best NRR in the group and would only strengthen it with a win, guaranteeing them a qualification. Sri Lanka, even in defeat, are well protected by the NRR cushion.

For Bangladesh to advance in this scenario, Afghanistan will have to defeat Sri Lanka by a huge margin. A Lankan collapse or a lightning chase by the Afghans will be the only way the Bangla Tigers play in the Super Four. All said, the NRR of Sri Lanka needs to drop below -0.270, a theoretical possibility but highly improbable in T20 matches.

What it means

Bangladesh’s fate is now in the hands of Sri Lanka. They can only hope that Sri Lanka win the game against Afghanistan. The final Group B fixture of the tournament thus carries different significance for the three teams – Afghanistan aggressively chasing a place in the next round, Sri Lanka settling down before the business end and guarding against a disaster, and Bangladesh reduced to anxious spectators.