England arrive with what even neutral observers are calling their strongest Ashes squad in years, but they are up against a side that hasn’t lost an Ashes series at home since 2010-11 and has run up a brutal 5-0, 4-0, 4-0 streak in the last three home editions.

A golden era fraying at the edges

Let us start with the age column of the current Australian squad. Cameron Green is the only player in his 20s; everyone else belongs to the 30-plus club.

This is effectively the last big stand for the Smith-Starc-Hazlewood-Lyon-Khawaja generation. The batting core is creaking: Marnus Labuschagne has averaged in the low-20s over the last two years in Test cricket, with just one century in his last 28 matches. Usman Khawaja, 38, has only one hundred in the last two-and-a-half years, and that came on a slow Galle track rather than against high-quality pace on hard decks.

Layer on Pat Cummins missing the Perth opener with a back issue, and this looks nothing like the invincible unit of 2013-19.

Still the favourites

Strip the emotion out and look at what England are actually trying to overturn.

Recent home Ashes scoreline for Australia

Since 2000, Australia have lost only 13% of their home Tests – 99 wins, 18 defeats, 22 draws – and have won 71.2% of all home Test series across the last 25 years. That’s the base rate you are betting against.

Even in this “weakened” state, the attack remains elite: Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Scott Boland, and Nathan Lyon, with Cummins returning from the second Test and Green/Webster as support. Cummins already has 300-plus wickets at an average of 22.10, a number only McGrath, Ambrose, Marshall, and Rabada have bettered among high-volume quicks. Lyon is just two wickets away from going past McGrath into second on Australia’s all-time list.

The schedule also tilts their way. The Ashes run from 21 November to 8 January, starting at Perth, then a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, followed by Adelaide, Melbourne, and Sydney – a fast-bowling dream sequence in the first half, then two grounds where Australia’s veterans know exactly how to close a series.

So yes, this is probably the thinnest, oldest Australian Ashes squad since the late Ponting-Hussey years. But it is also a side that’s grown up bullying England on these pitches, with a bowling group still good enough to win low-scoring series on muscle memory alone.

For England, the reality check is brutal: you are not playing peak Australia, but you are still playing Australia at home.