Gold rate today: The relentless rally in gold price extended into its eighth consecutive week, with prices scaling a new all-time high of ₹1,23,677 per 10 gm, gaining about 2.9% for the week. In the international market, gold prices surpassed the $4,000-per-ounce mark for the first time, soaring to a record high of nearly $4,060 per ounce. The parabolic rise in the precious metal continues to underscore its status as a barometer of global economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The 58% year-to-date rally in gold marks its best annual performance since 1979, highlighting its role as a mirror of global fragility.

Triggers that are fueling gold rates today

The rally in gold rate today has been supported by a potent mix of macroeconomic forces, including the tariff war, central bank diversification away from the US dollar, monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, geopolitical instability, and, most recently, the prolonged US government shutdown. Central banks, particularly in emerging economies, have been aggressively accumulating gold, reinforcing its status as the anti-dollar reserve asset in a world increasingly defined by trade fragmentation and de-dollarisation. In essence, gold is being rediscovered as the real global currency — one that transcends political boundaries and monetary policies.

The latest upmove was driven by renewed expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut at its upcoming October meeting, following dovish tones in the minutes of the previous FOMC meeting-a scenario that typically boosts demand for non-yielding assets like gold.

US shutdown in focus

At the same time, the ongoing US government shutdown, now stretching into its second week, has added to global economic unease. Estimates suggest that the US economy is losing nearly $7 billion per week in output, a number that could swell to $15 billion if the deadlock persists. This policy paralysis has heightened fears of a broader slowdown, amplifying safe-haven demand for gold. However, after such a sharp run-up, the metal experienced some profit-taking towards the end of the week, as geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas eased and the US dollar index rebounded to around 99.56, up from its September low of 96. The rebound in the dollar prompted some liquidation in bullion positions. Even as short-term corrections set in, prices found strong buying support at lower levels amid renewed geopolitical and trade uncertainties.

Donald Trump announces 100% additional tariff on China

Fresh concerns emerged after President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, accusing Beijing of pursuing monopolistic control of rare earths. This reignited fears of another US–China trade war, a scenario that historically drives capital into safe-haven assets. Additionally, political unrest in Japan and France further clouded the global outlook, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a hedge against systemic risk.

Investor appetite has also surged across physical and financial channels. Indian gold ETFs recorded inflows of $902 million in September, marking a 285% jump over August, with total holdings rising to a record 77.3 tons, according to the World Gold Council. Indian gold ETFs have witnessed record inflows of $2.18 billion so far in 2025, far surpassing previous annual totals- reflecting growing conviction among retail and institutional investors alike. Global physically backed gold ETFs recorded their most significant monthly inflow in September, resulting in the strongest quarter on record of US$26bn.

From a technical standpoint, gold prices could experience further upside, but signs of near-term exhaustion are emerging, especially if the dollar strengthens further. The metal may experience bouts of consolidation or corrections if the US dollar index sustains a level above 100.

On the upside, resistance for gold is expected near $4,120 to $4150 per ounce and in the ₹1,25,000 to ₹1,27,000 per 10 gm zone. On the other hand, the metal has near-term support at around $3,940 per ounce in the international market and ₹1,19,800 per 10 grams at the domestic market.

Gold price registers its ninth quarterly gain in a row

An interesting observation worth noting is that gold has now posted nine straight quarterly gains since the onset of the Israel–Hamas conflict in late 2023, one of the longest winning streaks in its modern trading history. As Israel’s government has approved the first phase of a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, paving the way for an immediate halt to hostilities in Gaza, it could even mean the onset of a corrective rally in gold. Following such a steep climb, a decisive break below $3,940 per ounce could invite deeper pullbacks. Until then, gold remains the ultimate hedge in an increasingly uncertain world, where investors continue to seek safety amid policy instability, trade tensions, and monetary realignment.

Gold price outlook

From a technical standpoint, gold prices still have room for further upside, although signs of near-term exhaustion are beginning to emerge, particularly if the US dollar continues to strengthen. The metal could experience phases of consolidation or corrective pullbacks should the dollar index sustain above the 100 mark, as a firmer greenback typically caps gains in precious metals.

On the higher side, immediate resistance for gold is seen in the range of $4,120–$4,150 per ounce in the international market and around ₹1,25,000 to ₹1,27,000 per 10 grams in domestic terms. Conversely, strong support is placed near $3,940 per ounce globally and ₹1,19,800 per 10 gms.

An interesting technical milestone worth highlighting is that gold has now logged nine consecutive quarterly gains since the outbreak of the Israel–Hamas conflict in late 2023. However, as Israel’s government approves the first phase of a ceasefire with Hamas, paving the way for a potential cooling of regional tensions, the metal could see a short-term corrective phase as some of the geopolitical risk premium unwinds.

That said, a decisive break below the $3,940 level would be a key signal for a deeper retracement, while sustained trading above this zone should keep the broader bullish structure intact. Until then, gold continues to shine as the ultimate hedge in a world still grappling with policy uncertainty, trade disruptions, and shifting monetary alignments, reaffirming its status as the cornerstone of global financial stability.

(Author is the founder of SS WealthStreet. The views and recommendations made above are those of the expert and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.)