Stock market this week: The Indian stock market remained cautious and choppy throughout the week, led by renewed global trade tensions and sustained foreign investor selling.

On Friday, both benchmark indices took a U-turn, slipping back into the red amid profit booking, after posting notable gains of around half a percent in the previous session.

The Sensex tumbled 770 points, or 0.94%, to end at 81,537.70, while the Nifty 50 declined 241 points, or 0.95%, to close at 25,048.65.

Ongoing geopolitical concerns, caution ahead of the Union Budget 2026, and mixed Q3 earnings further dampened the overall market sentiment.

“ Indian equities resumed their downward trajectory after witnessing a small recovery on Thursday. Nifty fell by 241 points (-1%) to close just above the 25k levels at 25,048, dragged by a sharp decline in several heavyweights. Stock-specific action continued on the back of mixed Q3 results so far. The broader markets underperformed with Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 down 1.8% and 2%, respectively, as investors adopted a cautious stance amid overall market weakness,” said Siddhartha Khemka – Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Stock Market Outlook next week

Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money, believes that as markets head into the pre-Budget and monthly derivatives expiry week, a mild technical rebound cannot be ruled out.

Ponmudi further explained that elevated FII short positions, oversold momentum indicators, and pre-Budget positioning could trigger bouts of short covering. That said, the durability of any recovery is likely to remain contingent on global cues, earnings follow-through, and investor positioning ahead of the Union Budget.

“ Investor expectations from the Union Budget are anchored around fiscal prudence, with the fiscal deficit seen at around 4.2–4.3% of GDP, alongside a continued thrust on capital expenditure—particularly in infrastructure, defence, and railways. Markets are also factoring in modest tax rationalisation, targeted sectoral incentives, and policy measures to support MSMEs and export-oriented sectors in the face of tariff-related challenges. Reforms aimed at improving capital market depth and efficiency also feature prominently on the investor wishlist, as participants look for policy clarity to anchor sentiment amid an uncertain global backdrop,” Ponmudi said.

Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market

Union Budget 2026

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is all set to present the Union Budget 2026 in Parliament on Sunday, February 1, which will be the key factor to drive the Indian stock market this week.

US Fed meet

The US Federal Meeting is scheduled for this week from January 27 to January 28. According to market experts, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday.

Q3 results 2026

The market is now headed towards the third week of earnings season for FY26.

“Early-week sentiment found some support from earnings upgrades at Infosys and selective strength in banking stocks; these positives were quickly overshadowed by earnings disappointments and muted results from sectoral peers,” said Ponmudi of Enrich Money.

L&T, ITC, Maruti Suzuki, Adani Enterprises, Axis Bank, GAIL, and NTPC are among the companies to declare their Q3 results FY26 next week.

India-US trade deal

India continues to be actively involved in global trade matters, Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw told PTI on Thursday, projecting confidence after US President Donald Trump voiced optimism over a potential trade deal.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said that he is optimistic about securing a “good trade deal” with India, and praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “fantastic leader” and a close friend.

Geopolitical tensions

According to Reuters, the US President said on Thursday that he had reached an agreement with NATO granting the United States permanent and unrestricted access to Greenland. However, the specifics of any such deal remain unclear. The report also noted that Greenland’s Prime Minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, said he lacked clarity on several aspects of the arrangement.

This uncertainty surrounding the purported US–NATO Greenland agreement continues to weigh on market sentiment.

Gold and Silver prices

Gold edged closer to the $5,000/ounce mark as geopolitical tensions and fresh concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence fueled a record-setting surge.

Bullion touched a new peak above $4,967 on Friday and was heading for a weekly gain of nearly 8%, helped by a softer dollar. Silver also jumped to an all-time high just under $100 an ounce, as the US dollar index was on course for its weakest week in seven months, making precious metals more affordable for most buyers.

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

According to Ponmudi, the index has stabilised after testing the 24,900–25,000 zone, forming a short-term base.

“ Holding above 25,000–25,100 could support consolidation or a modest rebound toward 25,300–25,500. A decisive move above 25,700 may open the path to 26,000+, while a break below 25,000 risks a slide toward 24,800–24,500. Options positioning suggests a range-bound bias. Call writing is heavy around 25,300–25,400, indicating resistance, while put support is visible near 25,000–25,200. The Put-Call Ratio remains subdued, reflecting cautious sentiment,” Ponmudi said.

Bank Nifty

Meanwhile, on the Bank Nifty outlook, he added that the Bank Nifty ended Friday’s session with a firmly bearish technical tone after a decisive breakdown below the crucial 58,800 support.

“ The rejection from the 59,000–59,100 supply zone confirmed strong distribution at higher levels. Post-breakdown, the index remained heavy and consolidated near the day’s lows, indicating the absence of meaningful dip buying. Immediate support is placed near 58,500, where marginal buying interest was seen, while any recovery is likely to face stiff resistance in the 58,900–59,000 zone, now a major supply area. The trend structure of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, and unless the index regains broken supports with volume confirmation, the near-term bias continues to favour a sell-on-rise approach,” he said.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.