This year, Wall Street strategists expect the S&P 500 to gain about 9.6%, but that seems unlikely. Going back to 2015, the S&P 500 has gained about 9% just one, in 2016, when it rose 9.5%. Otherwise, the index had two bad years (it lost 0.7% in 2015 and 6.2% in 2018), one terrible year (a 19% decline in 2022), and a bunch when it rose more than 16%. For Dean Lyulkin, CEO of specialty finance firm Cardiff, one of two outcomes is most likely. “Either conditions deteriorate and returns disappoint, or risk premiums compress and returns exceed expectations,” he writes. “The clean, moderate outcome is often the least common.” He expects another great year in 2026.